Export turnover increased by 25.5%
According to a report of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the total import and export turnover of goods in July 2021 was estimated at 55.7 billion USD, up 1.5% over the previous month. However, in general, for the first 7 months of 2021, the estimated total import and export turnover of goods is still high, reaching 373.36 billion USD, up 30.2% over the same period last year, of which exports reached $185.33 billion, up 25.5%; imports reached $188.03 billion, up 35.3%.
Specifically, the export turnover of goods in July 2021 was estimated at 27 billion USD, down 0.8% compared to the previous month, of which the domestic economic sector reached 7.49 billion USD, down 3.2% ; FDI sector (including crude oil) reached 19.51 billion USD, up 0.2%. Thus, compared to the same period last year, the export turnover of goods in July increased by 8.4%, of which the domestic economic sector increased by 2.2%, the foreign-invested sector (including oil and gas). crude) increased by 11%. Generally, for the first seven months of 2021, export turnover of goods is estimated at $185.33 billion, up 25.5% over the same period last year, of which the domestic economic sector reaches $48.52 billion, up 14.6%, accounting for 26.2% of total export turnover; FDI sector (including crude oil) reached 136.81 billion USD, up 29.9%, accounting for 73.8%.
For agricultural, forestry and fishery products: Export turnover in July 2021 was estimated at US$2.38 billion, down 5.6% compared to June 2021 and up 15.2% over the same period in 2020. In general, in the first 7 months of the year, the export turnover of this commodity group was estimated at 15.78 billion USD, up 14.6% over the same period in 2020, accounting for 8.52% of the total export turnover.
Thus, it can be seen that, in general, most agricultural and aquatic products recorded growth in the first 7 months of this year. In which, rubber is the fastest growing commodity in the first 7 months of 2021 with an increase of 33.6% in volume and 73.6% in value over the same period in 2020, reaching 914 thousand tons. worth $1.5 billion. Export turnover of cassava and products from cassava, pepper and cashew kernels respectively increased by 24.1%; 49.8% and 14% over the same period in 2020. Similarly, the two items with the largest export turnover in this group, seafood and vegetables, also increased by 12.0% and 15% respectively over the same period. same period in 2020.
Meanwhile, rice exports reached 1.9 billion USD, down 0.6% (the volume decreased by 10.6%); coffee reached 1.8 billion USD, down 1.7% (volume decreased by 9.3%); tea reached USD 113 million, down 0.3% (amount decreased by 4.5%).
As for fuel and minerals, export turnover in July 2021 decreased by 55.1% compared to June 2021 and decreased by 5% over the same period in 2020. However, in general, in 7 months, this commodity group had a positive growth with export turnover reaching 1.78 billion USD, a slight increase of 1.7% over the same period last year, accounting for 0.96% of total export turnover. This group of goods recorded a high growth in coal and petroleum products of all kinds with an increase of 138.4% and 9.7% respectively over the same period last year. Meanwhile, crude oil exports fell 10.9% and other ores and minerals fell 8.1%.
Export turnover of processed industrial products in July 2021 was estimated at US$23.15 billion, up only 0.9% compared to June 2021 and up 9.1% over the same period in 2020. In general. In the first seven months of 2021, the export turnover of processed industrial products still maintained a high growth rate of 27.9% over the same period in 2020, estimated at 159.12 billion USD, accounting for 85.85% of the total export turnover. export of the whole country.
This growth momentum came from most of the key products of the group such as: phones and components increased by 11.9%; computers, electronic products and components by 16.5%; machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts increased by 55.4%; wood and wood products increased by 53.7%… Exports of textiles and footwear continued to maintain their recovery momentum with a growth rate of more than double digits: textiles and garments increased by 14.1%; footwear of all kinds increased by 27.7%; curtain fabrics, other technical fabrics increased by 86.7%; fibers, textile yarns of all kinds increased by 62.8% compared to 7 months of 2020.
Statistics show that the US is currently Vietnam’s largest export market with a turnover of US$53.7 billion, up 37.7% over the same period last year. Next is China with 28.8 billion USD, up 24.6%. The EU market reached 22.6 billion USD, up 15.6%. The ASEAN market reached 16.2 billion USD, up 25.8%. Korea reached 11.9 billion USD, up 10.3%. Japan reached 11.8 billion USD, up 8.9%.
In the opposite direction, the import turnover of goods in July 2021 was estimated at USD 28.7 billion, up 3.8% over the previous month, of which the domestic economic sector reached USD 10.3 billion, up 3.3%; FDI sector reached 18.4 billion USD, up 4%. Compared with the same period last year, the import turnover of goods in July increased by 29.9%, of which the domestic economic sector increased by 26.3%; the foreign-invested sector increased by 32.1%. Generally, for the first seven months of 2021, the import turnover of goods was estimated at US$188.03 billion, up 35.3% over the same period last year, of which the domestic economic sector gained US$66.31 billion, up 29.8%; FDI sector reached 121.72 billion USD, up 38.5%.
In the first 7 months of this year, China was Vietnam’s largest import market with a turnover of 62.4 billion USD, up 48.8% over the same period last year. Followed by the Korean market reached 29.8 billion USD, up 20.6%. The ASEAN market reached $24.9 billion, up 49.6%. Japan reached 12.6 billion USD, up 14.5%. The EU market reached US$ 9.76 billion, up 20.8%. The United States reached $8.97 billion, up 10.6%.
Forecast of export demand is still quite high
Also according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s assessment, the export activities of most commodities, the first 7 months of the year achieved a positive growth. However, this growth momentum is slowing down because the COVID-19 epidemic is negatively affecting production and business activities of enterprises. In the coming time, import and export growth will depend greatly on disease control as well as accelerating the vaccination process in the country.
The balance of trade in goods in July was estimated to have a trade deficit of 1.7 billion USD. In the first 7 months of 2021, the trade balance of goods has a trade deficit of 2.7 billion USD (the same period last year, the trade surplus is 8.69 billion USD), of which the domestic economic sector has a trade deficit of 17.8 billion USD; the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) had a trade surplus of 15.1 billion USD.
The demand for export goods is forecasted to be still quite high. The fact that countries are strongly implementing vaccination and reopening has increased demand for textiles, footwear, furniture, and electronics. of Vietnam. Along with that, a number of economies continue to deploy demand stimulus packages, through direct support to people, thereby promoting the consumption of goods, including those imported from Vietnam. In a statement issued on July 21, 2021, the World Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that global economic growth in 2021 will be at 6%, equivalent to the forecast made in April. 2021. According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Outlook report released on June 8, 2021, the world economy will grow by 5.6% instead of the 4.1% forecast earlier. January 2021. The World Bank believes that COVID-19 vaccination programs and economic stimulus measures in major countries will boost global growth.
At the same time, free trade agreements are gradually being implemented in a more comprehensive and effective manner, which is expected to continue promoting Vietnam’s export industries, creating favorable conditions for Vietnamese goods. penetrate into partner markets with preferential tariffs, thereby promoting strong export growth in the coming time. Export prices are also tending to increase, especially Vietnam’s strong commodities, which will be an important driving force to increase export value.
According to the cycle, imports of raw materials for production usually increase at the beginning of the year and decrease in the second half of the year while exports peak in the second half of the year. Demand for Vietnam’s export goods will continue to increase in the second half of 2021, especially for electronics, machinery and equipment, furniture, textiles and seafood… Therefore, the balance Trade is expected to improve in the near future.
However, import and export activities may be negatively affected because Southeast Asia continues to be the focus of the world with the number of new COVID-19 infections rapidly increasing in countries such as Indonesia or Thailand. … In the country, the COVID-19 epidemic broke out in many localities which are large commodity production areas, with the largest scale of import and export turnover of the country. Some provinces and cities implement social distancing according to the principle of Directive 16/CT-TTg of the Prime Minister, causing disruption to the circulation and transportation of goods; The lack of empty containers and high freight rates are also obstacles for import and export activities in the last months of this year.
For key export items such as electronics, textiles and footwear, along with the recovery of consumer demand in major markets such as the US and Europe, along with the trend of shifting global production chains After the epidemic, businesses may have more new export orders. However, in the face of the complicated epidemic situation, businesses have been trying to maintain production with the great risk that international customers will stop or cancel orders to move to other countries, to Once the epidemic is under control, the resumption of business relationships will be very difficult and requires a process.